Rounding Third: K-State visits Waco for its next conference clash
- Chase Hagemann
- Mar 20
- 4 min read
K-State's goal this weekend is to rewrite history. It's as simple as that. The Baylor Bears are 4-5 overall against the Wildcats since the COVID season, and are 4-2 in the past two meetings in Waco, Texas.
Despite Baylor's stagnant rebuild, its one claim to success over recent years is winning at home, while K-State's road struggles continue under head coach Pete Hughes. K-State lost the series at Baylor in 2023, which kickstarted (what would be) a 6-6 Big 12 record on the road.
Even during K-State's second best season in program history last year, the Wildcats finished 6-9 on the road in conference play. After a much needed win against Tarleton State on Wednesday, the road-tested bunch will need to step it up against a much improved Baylor squad.
The Bears' 2025 campaign can be summed up like this: a hit away from upsetting ranked opponents and taking care of business against the rest. The excuse for up-and-coming program's success at this point in the season is always about strength of schedule and RPI.
Fans are using this reasoning to explain Kansas' 17 wins, especially since the Jayhawks are 3-3 against power-4 teams after jumping out to a 14-1 start. Those same fans are now pointing the finger at Baylor following its series loss to KU. The truth is that the schedules are not comparable.
Up until KU's loss at Minnesota, a sub-par .500 squad, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is the best win on the Jayhawks' resume. Baylor, on the other hand, defeated a (current) 17-win UTSA team, swept Lamar and beat Texas State following its 1-2 loss in Lawrence. Meanwhile, the Bears are one hit away from claiming victories against No. 8 Oregon State (3-4 loss) and No. 25 Auburn (4-7 loss); the Beavers and Tigers climbed in the polls since then.
Similar to K-State, the bulk of Baylor's wins are contributed to consistent pitching and swinging the sticks well. In fact, these two squads are almost indistinguishable. The teams are separated by two points in batting average, are tied with 42 doubles, have a one-run difference in total scoring and are less than 10 apart in hits and RBI. (All K-State stats do not include its recent game against Tarleton State).
At the plate:
Batting Average:
K-State - .301
Baylor - .303
Runs:
K-State - 158
Baylor - 159
Hits:
K-State - 194
Baylor - 203
Homers:
K-State - 34
Baylor - 21
Runs Batted In:
K-State - 138
Baylor - 147
Slugging Percentage:
K-State - .525
Baylor - .475
Stolen Bases:
K-State - 31
Baylor - 28
Pitching:
There isn't one stand-out pitcher in either dugout. K-State pitchers specifically have a healthy balance between strikeouts and pitching to contact, allowing the starters to throw deeper into the game as of late. Out of Jacob Frost, Michael Quevedo and Lincoln Sheffield collectively have a 4.02 earned runs average (ERA) and an average of eight strikeouts per game.
Frost: 4.50 ERA; 1.32 WHIP; 23 strikeouts in nearly four innings pitched.
Quevedo (3-0): 3.91 ERA; 1.57 WHIP; 30 strikeouts in about five innings pitched.
Sheffield (4-1): 3.64 ERA; 1.28 WHIP; and 35 strikeouts in roughly six innings.
Baylor's weekend starters collectively have a 5.11 ERA. The numbers are inflated after KU scored five runs against Friday starter Ethan Calder, eight runs against Saturday starter Bryson Bales and six against Sunday starter Carson Bailey.
Much like the Wildcats, Baylor throws its best guy on Sunday rather than Friday.
Bailey is 2-0 with a 3.92 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 20.2 innings pitched.
Bales is 1-1 with a 6.98 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 19.1 innings pitched.
Calder is 3-2 with a 4.44 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 26.1 innings pitched.
Bales appears to be more on his game when he's pitching in Texas, surrendering only three runs in his worst performance at home. KU's hitting showcase upped Bales' ERA to almost seven, but it's not an accurate representation of his talent level.
My Prediction:
History says Baylor has K-State's number in Waco, but the Wildcats boast a lineup where only one player is batting below .280. Baylor's lineup consists of six guys hitting above .280 as well, but the difference is that K-State did the damage in a top-5 non-conference slate. With K-State pitchers outperforming opposing starters, the Wildcats should win the series. In light of the road woes, I'm of the opinion that a sweep is out of question, so I believe Baylor will likely win game one.
My sweep prediction last week proved to be correct. However, my score average underestimated the strength of the BatCats. I predicted an average score of 9-5, but K-State defeated Utah with an average score of 11-3 (or so). The Utes' small ball almost paid off in the Friday night dust bowl, but K-State launched back-to-back homers in the ninth to walk it off.
I predict K-State to win its two games by a score of 8-6. All three games are available for viewing on ESPN-plus. Friday’s first pitch is at 6:30 p.m.
My Big 12 Picks (5-1 series, 14-4 overall):
Arizona State wins the series 2-1 at home against KU.
Arizona marches into Morgantown, West Virginia, to win 2-1.
UCF defends its home field and wins the series 2-1 against Houston.
TCU rebounds after its loss to ASU and defeats Texas Tech 2-1 in Lubbock.
BYU beats Cincinnati on the road for a 2-1 series victory.
Oklahoma State defeats Utah 2-1 on the road in Salt Lake City.
I considered picking UCF to sweep Houston and OSU to sweep Utah, but UCF may not have the consistency to sweep a Big 12 team and the Pokes have yet to play in Utah's unique conditions.
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